Probability of risk in the recommendation of wheat cultivars for the northwest region of the state of Rio Grande do Sul
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33158/ASB.r256.v12.2026Keywords:
Triticum aestivum; Bayesian inference; multi-environment trials; heritability; genetic correlation; risk analysis; adaptability.Abstract
This study aimed to assess the probability of risk in recommending wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars for the northwestern region of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, during the 2023 and 2024 growing seasons. The experiments were conducted in two locations, Augusto Pestana and Entre-Ijuís, using a randomized complete block design with three replications in a factorial arrangement of four environments × thirty-nine cultivars. Agronomic traits, including plant height, ear insertion height, ear length, ear and grain weight, thousand-grain weight, and grain yield, were evaluated. Data were analyzed through the REML/BLUP approach using the metan package, and the probabilistic analysis of cultivar performance and risk was performed using the Probreed package in R software. Significant genotype × environment interactions were detected for most traits, particularly for grain yield, which exhibited low heritability (H² = 0.17) and high environmental influence. Plant height and ear insertion height showed high heritability (H² = 0.40 and 0.41, respectively) and strong genotypic correlation between environments (rge > 0.70), indicating stability. Conversely, ear length and yield exhibited greater environmental sensitivity (rge < 0.50). Genotypes G6 (BRS Xiru Capataz), G7 (FPS Certero), G23 (TBIO Blanc), G27 (TBIO Ponteiro), and G33 (TBIO Trunfo) stood out for superior and stable performance across environments. The probabilistic model effectively identified genotypes with lower risk of unstable performance, providing reliable recommendations for regional cultivar positioning. Overall, the results highlight the importance of integrating environmental information and genetic stability analysis to optimize wheat production in southern Brazil.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Gabriel Pias Zuchetto Silva, Ivan Ricardo Carvalho, Gabriel Mathias Weimer Bruinsma, Willyan Júnior Adorian Bandeira, Cristhian Milbradt Babeski, Dassaiévis Gonzatto Maciel, Pedro Felipe Lopes
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